The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 60 percent chance that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be above-normal. There is a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and just a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

We can expect a likely range of 13-19 named storms, of which 6-10 are expected to become hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, 3-6 are expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and peaks from mid-August to late October.

NOAA is predicting ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions, along with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon.

NOAA will upgrade the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer. The National Hurricane Center provides up-to-date forecasts, data, and tools.