Tag: Extreme Weather

Glacial Floods, Climate Change, and What the U.S. Can Learn from the Himalayas Disaster

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Field evidence of sediment aggradation.
Field evidence of sediment aggradation. (A to F) Photographs taken along the Teesta River show the aggradation of the sediments transported by the flood cascade and its impact. Latitude, longitude, and elevation (in m a.s.l) are at top right; locality name and distance from SLL are at bottom right. Photo credits: Praful Rao (study co-author).

A Disaster Unfolds

Imagine waking up in the middle of the night to a roaring wall of water crashing through your town. That’s what happened in Sikkim, India, on October 3, 2023. A glacial lake high in the Himalayas burst suddenly, sending a flood of 50 million cubic meters of water rushing downstream. Villages were washed away, bridges collapsed, and a massive hydropower dam was completely destroyed.

The flood traveled 385 kilometers, even reaching parts of Bangladesh. This was no ordinary flood—it was a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), a type of disaster that’s becoming more frequent as the planet warms.

What Caused the Flood?

At the heart of this disaster was South Lhonak Lake, one of the fastest-growing glacial lakes in the Himalayas. Scientists have been watching it for years, warning that its natural dam—made of ice and rock—was getting weaker.

Then, the worst happened:

  • A 14.7-million cubic meter chunk of frozen land collapsed into the lake.
  • This triggered a 20-meter-high wave—as tall as a six-story building.
  • The wave smashed through the natural dam, sending a torrent of water and debris barreling down the valley.

Think of it like a bathtub overflowing, except instead of a few gallons of water, it was millions of tons rushing out all at once.

The Impact: Lives, Land, and Infrastructure Lost

The destruction was swift and brutal:

  • 55 people lost their lives, and 74 are still missing.
  • More than 7,000 people were displaced, their homes and villages washed away.
  • 31 bridges, 25,900 buildings, and 276 square kilometers of farmland were destroyed.
  • The flood carried away 270 million cubic meters of sediment—enough to fill 100,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

Entire communities were left without power, food, or clean water, and the road to recovery is long.

The Role of Climate Change

So, why did this happen? The simple answer: climate change.

  • The South Lhonak Glacier has been melting faster than ever, losing 0.58 meters of ice every year.
  • The lake it feeds has grown dramatically in the past few decades.
  • Warming permafrost (frozen soil) is making mountain slopes unstable, increasing the risk of landslides and dam failures.

This isn’t just a Sikkim problem—glaciers around the world are melting at record speeds, putting millions of people at risk.

Could This Happen Again?

Unfortunately, yes. Scientists warn that South Lhonak Lake is still unstable.

  • The natural dam is eroding, making another flood likely.
  • Riverbanks weakened by the last flood could collapse, leading to more destruction.
  • Extreme rainfall—which is increasing due to climate change—could trigger another disaster.

And it’s not just Sikkim—other glacier-fed lakes in the Himalayas, the Andes, and even North America are showing similar warning signs.

Why This Matters

If you think this is just a distant problem, think again. The same climate forces that caused the Sikkim flood are also affecting other mountainous regions worldwide.

Melting Glaciers Are a Global Issue

Glaciers are retreating in Alaska, the Rocky Mountains, and the Pacific Northwest. As ice melts at a faster rate, more glacial lakes are forming, increasing the chances of floods like the one in Sikkim. If we don’t prepare, communities in mountainous regions of the U.S. could face similar disasters.

U.S. Disasters Are Increasing

The 2022 Yellowstone flood destroyed roads, bridges, and homes, forcing many residents to evacuate. In California, record-breaking storms and floods are becoming more frequent, causing billions in damage. Extreme weather events—whether floods, hurricanes, or wildfires—are getting stronger, deadlier, and harder to predict.

Our Infrastructure Is at Risk

Just like the Teesta-III dam in Sikkim collapsed, many worldwide dams, roads, and power plants are vulnerable to extreme weather. Many of these structures were built decades ago and weren’t designed to handle the kinds of disasters we’re seeing today.

We Can Learn

By taking action now, the U.S. can prevent similar disasters:

  • Invest in early warning systems—monitor unstable lakes and glaciers.
  • Upgrade infrastructure—build flood-resistant bridges and roads.
  • Plan for extreme weather—ensure communities are prepared for disasters.

Preventing Another Tragedy

While we can’t stop glaciers from melting overnight, we can take steps to reduce the damage.

Early Warning Systems (EWS)

Science and technology give us powerful tools to predict disasters before they happen. Governments and scientists must monitor unstable lakes and glaciers using satellites, sensors, and AI-driven models. These systems can detect early signs of danger, giving communities valuable time to evacuate before disaster strikes. Investing in real-time alerts and community education could save thousands of lives.

Building Stronger Infrastructure

We need to rethink how we design bridges, roads, and power plants. Structures built decades ago were not designed to handle the kinds of extreme weather we’re facing today. Engineers and policymakers must ensure that new infrastructure is flood-resistant and that existing structures are reinforced to withstand future disasters. This kind of investment is expensive, but the cost of doing nothing is far greater.

Preparing for Disasters

Education and preparation can mean the difference between life and death. Governments and communities must train people on emergency evacuation plans and improve international cooperation to respond to climate disasters. Since floods and other extreme weather events are increasing, being prepared is no longer optional—it’s essential.

Addressing Climate Change at Its Root

At the core of these disasters is a warming planet. To slow down glacial melting, we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Governments, businesses, and individuals can all play a role by switching to clean energy sources, reducing waste, and advocating for policies that combat climate change. These actions will protect glaciers, and help stabilize global weather patterns.

A Wake-Up Call

The Sikkim flood wasn’t just a freak event—it was a preview of what’s to come if we don’t act now. The good news? We still have time to prepare. By investing in early warning systems, better infrastructure, and climate solutions, we can reduce the risk of future disasters—both in the Himalayas and here at home.

Source: Sattar, A., Cook, K. L., Rai, S. K., Berthier, E., Allen, S., Rinzin, S., Van Wyk de Vries, M., Haeberli, W., Kushwaha, P., Shugar, D. H., Emmer, A., Haritashya, U. K., Frey, H., Rao, P., Gurudin, K. S. K., Rai, P., Rajak, R., Hossain, F., Huggel, C., … Younis Bhat, S. (2025). The Sikkim flood of October 2023: Drivers, causes, and impacts of a multihazard cascade. Science.

Navigating the Storm: How Climate Change Influences Mortgage Defaults in Florida

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Flooding caused by Hurricane Florence. Public domain image by the National Guard of the United States.
Flooding caused by Hurricane Florence. Public domain image by the National Guard of the United States.

In an era where climate change is increasingly influencing financial stability, a new study sheds light on how extreme weather events like heavy rains and tropical cyclones affect mortgage defaults and prepayments. This topic, first brought into focus by Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of England, has been a growing concern among financial regulators worldwide.

Weather Extremes and Mortgage Risks

The study, conducted in Florida, involved analyzing a massive dataset of 69,046 loans, amounting to over 3.7 million loan-month observations. Florida, known for its vulnerability to hurricanes and floods, serves as an ideal case for this study. The researchers used an innovative Cox proportional hazard model, incorporating spatiotemporal characteristics and weather variables, to examine the influence of weather extremes on mortgage risks.

Key Findings

  • Impact of Tropical Cyclones: The study reveals a significant, non-linear relationship between the intensity of tropical cyclones and mortgage defaults. The risk of default escalates notably with the increase in hurricane categories, especially moving from category two to three.
  • Heavy Rains and Flood Risks: Heavy rainfall in flood-prone areas also shows a substantial impact on default risks. Interestingly, such conditions discourage prepayment of mortgages, as borrowers may prefer to retain the option to default if insurance fails to cover disaster damages.
  • Climate Change Projections: By employing the First Street flood model projections for 2050, the study anticipates a systematic increase in mortgage risks due to climate change. This increase varies based on different scenarios of extreme weather events.

The findings of this study underscore the importance of integrating climate-related risks into mortgage risk assessment. As the world grapples with the impacts of climate change, this research provides valuable insights for risk managers and financial institutions to better prepare for and mitigate these emerging risks. The study not only confirms previous beliefs about the impact of weather extremes on mortgages but also offers precise quantification of these effects, emphasizing the need for climate-adjusted credit risk assessment in the face of changing environmental conditions.

Exploring Key Historical Climate Change Milestones

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With Davos starting up next week and COP28 wrapping up last month, we were curious to learn about significant climate change milestones, how our planet’s climate has evolved, and the lessons we can learn from this data.

Onset of Industrialization and its Impact

The Industrial Revolution marked a significant shift in climate change history. During the late 18th century, the widespread adoption of fossil fuels led to a notable increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, a key contributor to global warming. This period laid the foundation for the anthropogenic effects on climate that we witness today.

Discovery of the Greenhouse Effect

In the 19th century, scientists like John Tyndall and Svante Arrhenius began to unravel the role of greenhouse gases in regulating Earth’s temperature. This early research was pivotal in understanding how human activities could influence the climate through the emission of gases like CO2 and methane.

The Keeling Curve: A Turning Point

The Keeling Curve, a scientific project started by Charles David Keeling in 1958, provided the first clear evidence of rapidly increasing CO2 levels in the Earth’s atmosphere. It is a daily record of global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the IPCC plays a crucial role in assessing the science related to climate change. The panel provides scientific reports, key resources for governments and policymakers worldwide to help them understand climate change’s impacts and potential future risks, as well as strategies for adaptation and mitigation.

The inception of UN Climate Conferences (COP)

A landmark event in the history of global climate change initiatives was the inception of the United Nations Climate Change Conferences, commonly known as the Conference of the Parties (COP). The first COP meeting took place in 1995 in Berlin, Germany. The conference was convened in response to growing international concern over the alarming evidence of climate change and its potentially catastrophic impacts on the environment and human societies. The objective of these conferences was to review the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a treaty signed in 1992 by 154 nations at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. It aimed to combat dangerous human interference with the climate system. COP meetings have since become a central forum for nations to negotiate and assess progress in dealing with climate change.

World Economic Forum’s Engagement with Climate Change

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has played a pivotal role in bringing climate change to the forefront of global economic discussions. Initially focused on economic and business issues since its inception in 1971, the WEF began integrating environmental concerns, including climate change, into its agenda in the early 2000s. This integration marked a significant shift, recognizing the interdependence of economic development and environmental sustainability. The annual WEF meetings in Davos have since evolved to include a focus on climate change, sustainability, and green economic policies, bringing together leaders from various sectors to discuss and develop strategies to address these issues.

Global Climate Agreements and Policies

In response to growing evidence of climate change, international treaties like the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015) were established. These agreements represent significant global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change effects.

Grassroots Movements and Public Awareness

The rise of grassroots movements in the 21st century has been pivotal in driving public awareness and action on climate change. Notable examples include the “Fridays for Future” movement, inspired by activist Greta Thunberg, which mobilized millions of young people globally to demand climate action. These movements have been instrumental in pushing for urgent policy changes and raising awareness about the climate crisis at the community and global levels.

The Role of the Private Sector and Green Technology

The private sector’s shift towards sustainability and green technology represents a significant movement in addressing climate change. Companies around the world are increasingly adopting sustainable practices, investing in renewable energy, and innovating in green technology. This shift is not only a response to regulatory demands and environmental concerns but also a recognition of the economic opportunities in a low-carbon future.

Recent Trends and Extreme Weather Events

Last year, 2023, was confirmed to be warmest years on record, as confirmed by NASA and NOAA. Alongside rising temperatures, an increase in extreme weather events – such as hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires – has been observed, further indicating a changing climate.

2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet. It includes 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate action (Goal 13), afforable and clean energy (Goal 7), and responsible consumption and production (Goal 12). This agenda highlights the interconnected nature of social, economic, and environmental sustainability.

Historical climate change data is a window into the Earth’s climatic past and a guide for our future actions. It underscores the urgent need for informed policy decisions and collective action in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. Understanding and learning from our climate history remain an urgent priority in our journey towards a sustainable future.