Tag: EarthTalk

EVs Outnumbering Internal Combustion Cars, Q&A with EarthTalk

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I see more and more EVs out of the road. When will they start to outnumber internal combustion cars on American roads?
–Jane L., New Bern, NC

Electric vehicles (EVs) have been around about as long as cars themselves. In fact, primitive EVs were the dominant form of automotive transportation at the dawn of the auto age in Europe and the U.S. in the late 19th century. It wasn’t until the 1920s—when the U.S. road system was starting to be built out and cheap oil was available from newly tapped Texas oil fields—that internal combustion cars began to take over as the predominant vehicles across the United States.

It looks like we might have to wait some two decades for electric vehicles (EVs) to displace internal combustion cars as the kings of the American road. Credit: Mike, Pexels.
It looks like we might have to wait some two decades for electric vehicles (EVs) to displace internal combustion cars as the kings of the American road. Credit: Mike, Pexels.

And we never looked back. Until recently, that is. Nowadays, EVs (Teslas, Leafs, Bolts, etc.) are indeed everywhere. Analysts estimate the EVs will be cheaper to buy than internal combustion cars as soon as 2022. Beyond that, it’s probably only a matter of two decades before EVs represent the majority of cars, light trucks and SUVs plying American roads.

In 2018, EVs made up only about six percent of total U.S. new car sales, but that figure represents an astonishing 70 percent growth from the year prior. Moving forward, analysts expect around 13 percent annual compound growth in the EV sector for the foreseeable future. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research arm of the New York-based media company, expects sales of passenger EVs to overtake conventional internal combustion-based vehicles by 2038 (with EV sales topping 50 million a year as compared to conventional vehicle sales of 47 million by then). After that, EVs, with their lower ongoing fuel and maintenance costs, will continue taking over more and more of the market every year, calling the very future of the internal combustion engine passenger car into question.

As technologies mature (allowing for better battery storage and extended driving range) and manufacturers ramp up production and prices come down accordingly, consumers will begin to look exclusively at EVs when shopping for new cars. Indeed, a recent survey of 2,000 adults living in either California or the Northeast Tristate Area (NY, NJ, CT) by consulting firm West Monroe Partners found that the majority (59 percent) of respondents think their next vehicle will be an electric car. Not surprisingly, the survey found that Gen Zers (those born after 1996) are especially inclined toward EVs.

That said, only 16 percent of respondents are driving around in EVs today, and concerns including short battery life and lack of charging stations (limiting the vehicles’ range), as well as high up-front purchase costs, are still holding many of us back from taking the all-electric plunge. But the writing is on the wall for gas guzzling passenger cars as we overcome these short-term hurdles. With about 15 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions emanating from the tailpipes of our internal combustion cars and light trucks, and gasoline becoming more and more expensive, the inevitable switchover to EVs—despite efforts by the Trump administration to reduce national fuel efficiency standards and bolster the ailing oil industry—is going to be a win-win for consumers and the planet. 2038 can’t come too soon!

CONTACTS: Bloomberg New Energy Finance;“Who is Leading The Charge on Electric Vehicles?” “Yes, Electric Cars Will Be Cheaper.”

EarthTalk® is produced by Roddy Scheer & Doug Moss for the 501(c)3 nonprofit EarthTalk. Send questions to: question@earthtalk.org.

“Flying Shame”, Q&A with EarthTalk

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What is so-called “Flying Shame” and what’s the climate connection?
–Bridget J., New York, NY

“Flying shame” is one of those memic terms that has sprung up recently to describe guilting people out of taking airplane trips given the massive carbon footprint of air travel. Some call it “The Greta Effect” in a nod to Swedish teen environmental activist Greta Thunberg, who swore off air travel given its disproportionate drag on her efforts to slash her own carbon footprint.

Of course, Thunberg isn’t alone. In fact, the original concept of flying shame (“Flygskam”) actually started in Sweden, where “flying is becoming the new tobacco” in the words of Andy Rowell of the non-profit Oil Change International (OCI). A recent survey by the World Wildlife Fund found that 23 percent of Swedes have abstained from air travel in the past year to reduce their carbon footprints—a jump of six percentage points from a year ago. Meanwhile, 18 percent of respondents opted to travel by train instead of airplane over the course of the year.

Flygskam. Credit: Marina Hinic, Pexels.
“Flying shame” (or “Flygskam” in Swedish) describes guilting people out of taking airplane trips given the massive carbon footprint of air travel. Credit: Marina Hinic, Pexels.

And the Swedes aren’t the only ones cutting back on flying. Other Europeans are following suit, which makes sense given the excellent rail and ferry systems transecting Europe as practical alternatives to flying. The concept has been slower to catch on in the U.S. given greater distances and limited passenger rail options.

Regardless, air travel is growing by leaps and bounds overall worldwide. “The problem is that, as the science demands we radically reduce carbon emissions, the number of passenger aircraft is set to double by 2035,” worries OCI’s Rowell. Meanwhile, each and every day the aviation industry consumes five million barrels of oil. In 2017 alone, the backs of airplanes emitted 859 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, burning jet fuel contributes roughly 2.5 percent of total carbon emissions worldwide. Analysts think this proportion could rise to 22 percent by 2050 as other sectors clean up their acts quicker.

Meanwhile, there are no truly green, practical alternatives to kerosene-based jet fuel on the horizon. “Aircraft are becoming more fuel-efficient, but not quickly enough to offset the huge demand in growth,” reports The Conversation. “Electric planes remain decades away, weighed down by batteries that can’t deliver nearly as much power per kilo as jet fuel.”

So what’s to be done? Swear off flying, that’s what. Flight Free USA is a grassroots campaign trying to get at least 100,000 Americans to commit to not flying at all during the calendar year 2020 in order to send a “clear signal to industry and politicians—and also to each other—that there are many who are willing to change their lifestyles to protect the climate.”

Yet another slice of the apple is called A Free Ride, an idea which assigns an escalating flight tax depending on how many flights you take per year. One flight per year would be free of tax, while 14 flights a year would cost a pretty penny in taxes, with the proceeds going to offsetting the jet fuel with green energy projects elsewhere.

CONTACTS: Oil Change International; “Direct carbon dioxide emissions from civil aircraft”; “It’s time to wake up to the devastating impact flying has on the environment”; Flight Free USA; A Free Ride.

EarthTalk® is produced by Roddy Scheer & Doug Moss for the 501(c)3 nonprofit EarthTalk. Send questions to: question@earthtalk.org.

Geo-engineering, Q&A with EarthTalk

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Is the plan to sprinkle dust in the stratosphere to reflect some of the sun’s rays away from Earth to prevent global warming science or science fiction?
–M. Jackson, Tampa, FL

Some certainly do consider it science fiction, or worry that it could end up doing more environmental harm than good. Yet others—including Bill Gates and a team of leading Harvard scientists—think it could be the solution to our planetary climate woes.

What we’re talking about is a form of geo-engineering that entails sending up some 800 jumbo planes to sprinkle their payload of millions of tons of chalk dust in the stratosphere 12 miles above the Earth’s surface in an effort to reflect some of the sun’s heat back into space to turn the tide on climate change.

The so-called Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx) was developed by chemist James Anderson and physicist David Keith, both of Harvard—with funding from Bill Gates—“to advance understanding of stratospheric aerosols that could be relevant to solar geoengineering.” The researchers want to test their hypothesis with a $3 million experiment 12 miles above the Southwestern United States where they would steer remote controlled balloons to disperse small plumes of calcium carbonate.

The balloons would then turn around and observe any differences in the amount of solar radiation getting through. This system is adapted from a similar design the researchers used in groundbreaking research analyzing the composition of the stratospheric ozone layer.

But the test plan, initially slated for early 2019, has received some pushback from scientists and environmentalists, who worry that such tinkering could cause negative chain reactions and unforeseen irreversible consequences.

“Some researchers have suggested that solar geoengineering could alter precipitation patterns and even lead to more droughts in some regions,” reports Jeff Tollefson on Nature.com. “Others warn that one of the possible benefits of solar geoengineering—maintaining crop yields by protecting them from heat stress—might not come to pass.” He cites a 2018 study showing that yields of wheat, corn, rice and soy fell after two major volcanic eruptions darkened skies around the planet and took a toll on crop yields.

Given such concerns, Anderson and Keith are erring on the side of caution, setting up an external advisory committee to review the project and point out potential safety concerns to head off negative side effects. “Getting it done right is far more important than getting it done quickly,” says Peter Frumhoff of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

If they can pull off a successful test and then scale the idea, the good news is it might even be something the governments of the world—and/or some rich benefactors—can afford. An October 2018 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that dispersing enough sulfur in the stratosphere with a similar (cooling) intent could be done for less than $10 billion/year—and possibly for as little as $1 billion/year. While that might seem like a lot, it’s a bargain if it can save our environment, our civilization, and our very existence on the planet.

CONTACTS: SCoPEx; “First sun-dimming experiment will test a way to cool Earth”.

EarthTalk® is produced by Roddy Scheer & Doug Moss for the 501(c)3 nonprofit EarthTalk. Send questions to: question@earthtalk.org.