COVID-19 Mortality Link to Air Pollution

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New research links COVID-19 mortality to air pollution – specifically, small increases in levels of fine particulate matter – explains Professor Francesca Dominici from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

The study is the first to look at the link between long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5)—generated largely from fuel combustion from cars, refineries, and power plants—and the risk of death from COVID-19 in the U.S.

The study concludes that a small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in the COVID-19 death rate. The results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.

60% Chance of Above-Normal 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 60 percent chance that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be above-normal. There is a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and just a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

We can expect a likely range of 13-19 named storms, of which 6-10 are expected to become hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, 3-6 are expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and peaks from mid-August to late October.

NOAA is predicting ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions, along with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon.

NOAA will upgrade the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer. The National Hurricane Center provides up-to-date forecasts, data, and tools.

Future of the Human Climate Niche

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For thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints.

The researchers demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 years, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 years.

Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.

Video overview of the research article “Future of the human climate niche,” by Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer, PNAS May 26, 2020 117 (21) 11350-11355; first published May 4, 2020. Contributed by Marten Scheffer, October 27, 2019 (sent for review June 12, 2019; reviewed by Victor Galaz and Luke Kemp).