60% Chance of Above-Normal 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 60 percent chance that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be above-normal. There is a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and just a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

We can expect a likely range of 13-19 named storms, of which 6-10 are expected to become hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, 3-6 are expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and peaks from mid-August to late October.

NOAA is predicting ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions, along with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon.

NOAA will upgrade the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer. The National Hurricane Center provides up-to-date forecasts, data, and tools.

Future of the Human Climate Niche

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For thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints.

The researchers demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 years, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 years.

Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.

Video overview of the research article “Future of the human climate niche,” by Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer, PNAS May 26, 2020 117 (21) 11350-11355; first published May 4, 2020. Contributed by Marten Scheffer, October 27, 2019 (sent for review June 12, 2019; reviewed by Victor Galaz and Luke Kemp).

Sixth Mass Extinction is Human-Caused and Accelerating

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The ongoing sixth mass species extinction is the result of the destruction of component populations leading to eventual extirpation of entire species. Populations and species extinctions have severe implications for society through the degradation of ecosystem services.

Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction
Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction

Research Article

Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction

Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich, and Peter H. Raven, PNAS first published June 1, 2020. Contributed by Gerardo Ceballos, March 22, 2020 (sent for review December 26, 2019; reviewed by Thomas E. Lovejoy and Jorge L. Soberon).

The writers assess the extinction crisis from a different perspective. They examine 29,400 species of terrestrial vertebrates, and determine which are on the brink of extinction because they have fewer than 1,000 individuals. There are 515 species on the brink (1.7% of the evaluated vertebrates). Around 94% of the populations of 77 mammal and bird species on the brink have been lost in the last century. Assuming all species on the brink have similar trends, more than 237,000 populations of those species have vanished since 1900. They conclude the human-caused sixth mass extinction is likely accelerating for several reasons. First, many of the species that have been driven to the brink will likely become extinct soon. Second, the distribution of those species highly coincides with hundreds of other endangered species, surviving in regions with high human impacts, suggesting ongoing regional biodiversity collapses. Third, close ecological interactions of species on the brink tend to move other species toward annihilation when they disappear—extinction breeds extinctions. Finally, human pressures on the biosphere are growing rapidly, and a recent example is the current coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, linked to wildlife trade. Their results reemphasize the extreme urgency of taking much-expanded worldwide actions to save wild species and humanity’s crucial life-support systems from this existential threat.

Terrestrial vertebrates on the brink (i.e., with 1,000 or fewer individuals) include species such as (A) Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis; image credit: Rhett A. Butler [photographer]), (B) Clarion island wren (Troglodytes tanneri; image credit: Claudio Contreras Koob [photographer]), (C) Española Giant Tortoise (Chelonoidis hoodensis; image credit: G.C.), and (D) Harlequin frog (Atelopus varius; the population size of the species is unknown but it is estimated at less than 1,000; image credit: G.C.).
Terrestrial vertebrates on the brink (i.e., with 1,000 or fewer individuals) include species such as (A) Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis; image credit: Rhett A. Butler [photographer]), (B) Clarion island wren (Troglodytes tanneri; image credit: Claudio Contreras Koob [photographer]), (C) Española Giant Tortoise (Chelonoidis hoodensis; image credit: G.C.), and (D) Harlequin frog (Atelopus varius; the population size of the species is unknown but it is estimated at less than 1,000; image credit: G.C.).

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