Rising Temperatures and Inflation

June 23, 2024 / activist360

Vegetables in a market. Credit: Photo by nrd on Unsplash.

Economic Implications of Climate Change

As global temperatures climb, economists and policymakers are increasingly concerned about the secondary effects on economic stability. A recent study published in Nature sheds light on how rising temperatures are likely to boost inflation levels, affecting economies worldwide. Here’s what you need to know about the correlation between global warming and inflation, based on the latest research.

Key Findings: Temperature Increases and Inflation

The study utilizes a vast dataset encompassing over 27,000 observations of monthly consumer price indices from around the world. The findings are clear: higher temperatures are associated with significant increases in both food prices and overall inflation. This relationship persists over a 12-month period following temperature increases, suggesting long-term economic impacts.

Potential Impact on Electricity Prices

The study also highlights how rising temperatures could impact electricity prices. While the data on electricity specifically is not as robust as for overall inflation, the implications are significant given the increased demand for cooling during hotter periods. This heightened demand can strain supply and elevate electricity prices, further complicating the economic challenges posed by climate change.

Impact on Labor Productivity and Agricultural Yields

Higher temperatures are linked to reduced labor productivity, particularly in outdoor and non-air-conditioned environments, and lower crop yields. These factors contribute to the inflationary pressures observed in the study. Reduced productivity and agricultural output exacerbate economic stress during heatwaves, making communities more vulnerable to price increases.

Regional Impact Variations

The inflationary impact of rising temperatures is not uniform across all geographies. In regions with higher latitudes, inflation spikes during the hottest months of the year. In contrast, at lower latitudes, where temperatures are generally warmer, inflationary pressures are more consistent throughout the year.

Future Projections and Economic Forecasting

Looking ahead to 2035, the study projects substantial increases in inflation due to expected temperature rises. Under various climate models and emissions scenarios, global average food inflation could increase by 0.92 to 3.23 percentage points per year, while headline inflation could rise by 0.32 to 1.18 percentage points per year. These projections highlight the urgency for adaptive measures in monetary policies and economic planning.

The cumulative marginal effect of temperature shocks on food and headline inflation. From Kotz, M., Kuik, F., Lis, E., & Nickel, C. (2024). Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(116). (a) A schematic outline of the mechanisms via which temperature shocks may impact inflation via agricultural productivity and food prices. The results of fixed-effects panel regressions from over 27,000 observations of monthly price indices and weather fluctuations worldwide over the period 1996-2021 demonstrate persistent impacts on food (b) and headline (c) prices from a one-off increase in monthly average temperature. Lines indicate the cumulative marginal effects of a one-off 1 C increase in monthly temperature on month-on-month inflation rates, evaluated at different baseline temperatures (colour) reflecting the non-linearity of the response by baseline temperatures which differ across both seasons and regions (see methods for a specific explanation of the estimation of these marginal effects from the regression models). Error bars show the 95% confidence intervals having clustered standard errors by country. Full regression results are shown in Tables S2 & S3. Icons are obtained from Flaticon using work from Febrian Hidayat, Vectors Tank and Freepik.

Implications for Monetary Policy

The direct correlation between temperature increases and inflation has significant implications for central banks and monetary policymakers. Traditional monetary policy may need to evolve to address the challenges posed by climate-induced inflation, especially as these effects become more pronounced.

The Necessity for Socioeconomic Adaptation

The study underscores a critical gap in socioeconomic adaptation to rising temperatures. Historical data suggests limited adaptation through economic development, pointing to the need for unprecedented changes in future strategies. To mitigate inflationary pressures, enhanced agricultural resilience and economic adjustments are essential.

Summing Up

This research provides a crucial understanding of how climate change directly affects economic fundamentals such as inflation. It underscores the necessity for policymakers, particularly in economic and financial sectors, to consider the broader impacts of climate change—not just environmental but also economic. As the planet warms, the intertwined fates of our climate and economies become increasingly hard to ignore, demanding integrated approaches to climate policy and economic management.

Source: Kotz, M., Kuik, F., Lis, E., & Nickel, C. (2024). Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(116). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01173-x

The Vanishing Glaciers of Peru’s Central Cordillera

June 16, 2024 / activist360

Aerial view of retreating glaciers in Peru's Central Cordillera, highlighting the dramatic landscape changes.

Alonso Arias, Nicolás Núñez, Pedro Rau, Patrick Venail; Development of a spatial projection map of glacial retreat based on vulnerability maps in the Central Cordillera, Peru. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2024; jwc2024151. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.151

A Stark Warning of Climate Change’s Impact

In the heart of Peru, the Central Cordillera‘s glaciers are rapidly retreating, presenting an alarming forecast of what lies ahead if global warming continues unchecked. A recent study conducted by Alonso Arias and colleagues from the Centro de Investigación y Tecnología del Agua at Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología, Lima, provides a startling projection: a potential loss of 84–98% of these glaciers by the 2050s. This significant research highlights not only the critical vulnerabilities of Peru’s glacial landscapes but also underscores the broader implications for water resources and Andean communities dependent on these ice reserves.

The Study’s Approach

The research team utilized a sophisticated combination of remote sensing data and spatial analysis tools to map and project the retreat of glaciers from 1990 to 2021, extending these projections to 2055. By employing the frequency index and Shannon entropy index model, the study efficiently pinpoints areas most susceptible to rapid glacial retreat. This method allows for a nuanced understanding of how various factors like surface temperature, elevation, and precipitation interact to accelerate glacier melt. The authors of the study are optimistic that this innovative methodology will encourage similar research on other tropical glaciers in the region, enhancing our understanding and response to glacial retreat in comparable environments.

Implications for Water Resources

The implications of this study are profound. Glaciers in the Central Cordillera are a critical source of fresh water for the surrounding regions, supporting agriculture, hydroelectric power production, and daily water use. As these ice masses dwindle, the potential for water scarcity grows, posing a severe risk to food security and local economies. The study’s projections serve as a crucial tool for regional planners and policymakers, who must prepare for the future by adapting water management practices and developing new strategies to mitigate these impacts.

Human Impact and the Need for Action

The results of this study are crucial for policymakers and planners, as they provide a clear visualization of the areas at greatest risk and the potential timeline for change. These maps and data are essential for developing strategies to manage water resources and adapt to changing hydrological conditions that will impact agriculture, hydroelectric power production, and water supply for millions.

For communities in the Andes, the retreat of glaciers isn’t a distant, abstract problem; it’s a current crisis that threatens their way of life. This direct human connection makes the study particularly effective in communicating the urgency of the climate crisis.

Summing Up

The rapid retreat of Peru’s Central Cordillera glaciers is a microcosm of the global environmental challenges posed by climate change. The research by Alonso Arias and his team is more than a scientific study; it is a stark warning and a guide to potential solutions. By understanding the specific factors contributing to glacial retreat and visualizing their impacts through precise mapping, we can better prepare for and respond to the environmental changes that are reshaping our planet.

As readers and global citizens, we are called upon to support sustainable practices, advocate for responsible environmental policies, and educate ourselves and others about the impacts of climate change. The time for action is now—every effort counts in our collective quest to preserve our world for future generations.

Source: Alonso Arias, Nicolás Núñez, Pedro Rau, Patrick Venail; Development of a spatial projection map of glacial retreat based on vulnerability maps in the Central Cordillera, Peru. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2024; jwc2024151. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.151

The Pivotal Role of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities in Biodiversity Conservation

June 2, 2024 / activist360

A social outcomes ladder of 6 types of roles of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in conservation governance, based on synthesis of 648 empirical studies.

As global biodiversity continues to face threats from various fronts, the role of Indigenous peoples (IPs) and local communities (LCs) has never been more crucial. A recent study published in One Earth underscores the need for an equitable governance approach that recognizes and empowers these groups, offering sustainable and effective solutions to conservation challenges. Let’s look at transformative roles that IPs and LCs can play in biodiversity conservation, in alignment with the Global Biodiversity Framework targets.

Understanding the Global Biodiversity Framework

The Global Biodiversity Framework, established during the Kunming-Montreal conference, sets ambitious targets to safeguard the planet’s biological resources. A key target within this framework is the conservation of 30% of land and sea areas by 2030 through equitably governed systems. This goal emphasizes the importance of recognizing diverse values, ensuring rights to ancestral territories, upholding cultural practices, and involving all relevant actors in decision-making processes to achieve effective conservation outcomes.

Empirical Evidence and Ecological Outcomes

A comprehensive review of 648 empirical studies reveals that conservation initiatives where IPs and LCs have equal partnership or primary control lead to more positive ecological outcomes. This evidence strongly supports a governance model that respects and integrates the knowledge systems and customary practices of IPs and LCs, enhancing biodiversity conservation’s effectiveness and sustainability.

The Changing Paradigm of Conservation Governance

Traditional conservation methods often overlooked the intrinsic value and knowledge of IPs and LCs, limiting their roles to mere participants. However, a shift towards equitable governance is gaining momentum, where these communities are not only participants but leaders with significant control and recognition of their traditional values and institutions. This approach is proving essential for the ecological success of conservation efforts.

Roles of IPs and LCs in Governance

The typology of roles that IPs and LCs can assume in conservation governance ranges from excluded to autonomous.

The typology structure includes six distinct roles that reflect varying levels of participation, influence, and control:

Excluded: IPs and LCs have no participation or benefits.
Consultees: Minimal influence despite receiving some information or benefits.
Stakeholders: Some ability to influence decisions but limited control.
Partners: Equal partners or co-managers, sharing power in conservation efforts.
Primary Control: Primary authority with respected leadership and rights, though not fully autonomous.
Autonomous: Full autonomy with their knowledge and institutions fully recognized.

Each role on this spectrum provides insights into how different levels of involvement and control impact conservation outcomes. The findings advocate for policies that elevate IPs and LCs from mere stakeholders to leaders, recognizing their capability to manage and conserve natural resources effectively.

Overview of Intervention Types in Conservation Initiatives

Theories about involvement in conservation management suggest that decision-making is a complex process that includes many participants from different levels, all with their own interests and levels of power. The types of interventions identified in the reviewed cases include:

Protected and Conserved Areas (67.9%): Most common, focusing on designated areas for biodiversity preservation.
Livelihood Projects or Tourism Ventures (56.9%): Projects supporting sustainable livelihoods or integrating conservation with tourism.
Species Protection or Sustainable Use Regulations (53.9%): Efforts focused on specific species protection or sustainable resource use.
Local or Indigenous Stewardship (36.7%): Direct management or major influence by IPs and LCs in conservation efforts.
Ecosystem Restoration (15.7%): Initiatives aimed at restoring ecosystems to their natural states.
Incentives, Compensation, Revenue Sharing, or Market Instruments (13.6%): Economic tools to promote conservation.
Education and Capacity Building (10.6%): Focus on educating IPs and LCs and building their capacity for conservation.

This complexity means we need to carefully analyze how much influence different participants have at various stages of the conservation efforts. Instead of using simple measures like how often IPs and LCs attend meetings or their personal views on conservation, we should look more deeply at how meaningful their participation is and how the conservation processes are governed. This detailed examination will help us better understand the true role of IPs and LCs in making conservation decisions.

Statistical Analysis and Policy Implications

Statistical analyses corroborate that higher degrees of control and participation by IPs and LCs correlate with favorable ecological and social outcomes. These outcomes not only emphasize the need for a policy shift towards more inclusive governance but also highlight the importance of IPs and LCs in achieving the targets set by the Global Biodiversity Framework. The study suggests that empowering IPs and LCs is not just beneficial but necessary for the long-term success of global biodiversity conservation.

Summing Up

The pivotal role of IPs and LCs in biodiversity conservation is clear. By transitioning to governance models that provide full recognition and control to these communities, conservation efforts can be significantly more effective and equitable. It’s time for conservation policies and practices to reflect this reality, ensuring that IPs and LCs are at the forefront of the decision-making processes, thus safeguarding biodiversity for future generations.

Source: Dawson, N. M., Coolsaet, B., Bhardwaj, A., Booker, F., Brown, D., Lliso, B., Loos, J., Martin, A., Oliva, M., Pascual, U., Sherpa, P., & Worsdell, T. (2024). Is it just conservation? A typology of Indigenous peoples’ and local communities’ roles in conserving biodiversity. One Earth.