Category: Research

Exploring Key Historical Climate Change Milestones

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With Davos starting up next week and COP28 wrapping up last month, we were curious to learn about significant climate change milestones, how our planet’s climate has evolved, and the lessons we can learn from this data.

Onset of Industrialization and its Impact

The Industrial Revolution marked a significant shift in climate change history. During the late 18th century, the widespread adoption of fossil fuels led to a notable increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, a key contributor to global warming. This period laid the foundation for the anthropogenic effects on climate that we witness today.

Discovery of the Greenhouse Effect

In the 19th century, scientists like John Tyndall and Svante Arrhenius began to unravel the role of greenhouse gases in regulating Earth’s temperature. This early research was pivotal in understanding how human activities could influence the climate through the emission of gases like CO2 and methane.

The Keeling Curve: A Turning Point

The Keeling Curve, a scientific project started by Charles David Keeling in 1958, provided the first clear evidence of rapidly increasing CO2 levels in the Earth’s atmosphere. It is a daily record of global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the IPCC plays a crucial role in assessing the science related to climate change. The panel provides scientific reports, key resources for governments and policymakers worldwide to help them understand climate change’s impacts and potential future risks, as well as strategies for adaptation and mitigation.

The inception of UN Climate Conferences (COP)

A landmark event in the history of global climate change initiatives was the inception of the United Nations Climate Change Conferences, commonly known as the Conference of the Parties (COP). The first COP meeting took place in 1995 in Berlin, Germany. The conference was convened in response to growing international concern over the alarming evidence of climate change and its potentially catastrophic impacts on the environment and human societies. The objective of these conferences was to review the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a treaty signed in 1992 by 154 nations at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. It aimed to combat dangerous human interference with the climate system. COP meetings have since become a central forum for nations to negotiate and assess progress in dealing with climate change.

World Economic Forum’s Engagement with Climate Change

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has played a pivotal role in bringing climate change to the forefront of global economic discussions. Initially focused on economic and business issues since its inception in 1971, the WEF began integrating environmental concerns, including climate change, into its agenda in the early 2000s. This integration marked a significant shift, recognizing the interdependence of economic development and environmental sustainability. The annual WEF meetings in Davos have since evolved to include a focus on climate change, sustainability, and green economic policies, bringing together leaders from various sectors to discuss and develop strategies to address these issues.

Global Climate Agreements and Policies

In response to growing evidence of climate change, international treaties like the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015) were established. These agreements represent significant global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change effects.

Grassroots Movements and Public Awareness

The rise of grassroots movements in the 21st century has been pivotal in driving public awareness and action on climate change. Notable examples include the “Fridays for Future” movement, inspired by activist Greta Thunberg, which mobilized millions of young people globally to demand climate action. These movements have been instrumental in pushing for urgent policy changes and raising awareness about the climate crisis at the community and global levels.

The Role of the Private Sector and Green Technology

The private sector’s shift towards sustainability and green technology represents a significant movement in addressing climate change. Companies around the world are increasingly adopting sustainable practices, investing in renewable energy, and innovating in green technology. This shift is not only a response to regulatory demands and environmental concerns but also a recognition of the economic opportunities in a low-carbon future.

Recent Trends and Extreme Weather Events

Last year, 2023, was confirmed to be warmest years on record, as confirmed by NASA and NOAA. Alongside rising temperatures, an increase in extreme weather events – such as hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires – has been observed, further indicating a changing climate.

2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet. It includes 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate action (Goal 13), afforable and clean energy (Goal 7), and responsible consumption and production (Goal 12). This agenda highlights the interconnected nature of social, economic, and environmental sustainability.

Historical climate change data is a window into the Earth’s climatic past and a guide for our future actions. It underscores the urgent need for informed policy decisions and collective action in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. Understanding and learning from our climate history remain an urgent priority in our journey towards a sustainable future.

The Rising Challenge of Space Debris: ESA’s 2023 Space Environment Report Highlights the Need for Sustainable Practices

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LEO - Low Earth Orbit - Credit: NASA ODPO.
LEO stands for low-Earth orbit and is the region of space within 2,000 km of the Earth’s surface. It is the most concentrated area for orbital debris. Credit: NASA ODPO.

Navigating the Crowded Cosmos

As the Earth’s orbital space becomes increasingly populated with satellites crucial for scientific research, communication, and navigation, the burgeoning issue of space debris poses a threat to our sustainable future in space. The ESA’s 2023 Space Environment Report casts a sobering light on the crowded and hazardous orbits, underlining the urgency for effective space debris mitigation measures.

The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee’s guidelines set forth in 2002, aimed at reducing space debris, have become the foundation for space policy. However, with a record-breaking 2,409 new satellites launched in 2022, these guidelines are being outpaced by the sheer volume of space traffic. Many satellites remain in their operational orbits post-mission, creating potential debris clouds that could linger for years. With the rise of commercial satellite constellations in low-Earth orbits, the risk of collisions has grown exponentially, necessitating more frequent collision avoidance maneuvers.

Despite improvements in adopting debris mitigation measures, the ESA report suggests that current efforts are insufficient given the rate of satellite launches and existing debris. Over half of the 30,000 tracked debris pieces are cluttering low-Earth orbit, which doesn’t account for the countless smaller, untracked objects. The report warns that if we continue on this path, the dream of a sustainable space environment could slip through our fingers.

A Silver Lining

Nevertheless, there is a silver lining. A record number of satellites and fragments reentered Earth’s atmosphere in 2022, showing that adherence to guidelines — like vacating protected orbits within 25 years of end-of-life — is improving. Moreover, more than 80% of constellation satellites are now designed to deorbit within two years post-mission. Yet, most of these reentries are uncontrolled, posing risks of debris landing unpredictably on Earth.

ESA’s proactive steps include the novel “assisted reentry” technique, successfully demonstrated with the Aeolus satellite, and pioneering the ClearSpace-1 mission for active debris removal. These initiatives are part of ESA’s Zero Debris goal for 2030, aiming to leave no new space debris in critical orbits. By setting a precedent with the ClearSpace-1 mission, ESA aspires to catalyze a new commercial sector focused on debris removal and promote sustainable space operations industry-wide.

Time to Act

The 2023 report from ESA serves as a call to action for the global space community. The space around our planet is a finite, invaluable resource that demands our immediate attention and stewardship to prevent the dire predictions of Kessler Syndrome from becoming a reality.

…. fragments from future collisions will be generated faster than atmospheric drag will remove them.”

The Kessler Syndrome, as discussed by Donald J. Kessler, March 8, 2009

With continued focus and innovation in space sustainability, we can ensure that the benefits of space advancements are not overshadowed by the growing cloud of orbital debris. It’s time to act and safeguard our space environment for future generations.

Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Marine Mammals

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Mother and baby sperm whale
A mother sperm whale and her calf off the coast of Mauritius. The calf has remoras attached to its body. Credit: Gabriel Barathieu, January 26, 2013.

Our oceans are suffering the impact of climate change. From inshore environments to the deep ocean, marine ecosystems are undergoing significant transformations due to rising temperatures, increased carbon dioxide levels, and shifting environmental conditions. This research article by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) researchers published in PLOS ONE delves into the intricate relationship between climate change and marine mammals. The study focused on the United States’ western North Atlantic (WNA), Gulf of Mexico (GOMx), and Caribbean waters.

Drivers Impacting Marine Life

Global climate change has ushered in a multitude of alterations that stem from a handful of key drivers. Rising levels of heat and carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere are at the forefront. Here’s a closer look at the other major factors:

1. Increasing Ocean Temperatures

As the Earth’s temperature rises, so too do the temperatures of our oceans. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the western North Atlantic (WNA), where sea surface temperatures have been increasing rapidly. These rising temperatures have direct and indirect consequences for marine mammals that call these waters home.

2. Rising Sea Levels

One of the most visible effects of climate change is the rise in sea levels. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in regions like the southeastern United States, Gulf of Mexico (GOMx), and the Caribbean Sea. The accelerating sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal ecosystems and the marine life they support.

3. Decreasing Dissolved Oxygen

Climate change also contributes to declining levels of dissolved oxygen in our oceans. This is a particularly alarming trend for marine mammals, as many of them rely on oxygen-rich environments to thrive.

4. Declining Sea Ice Coverage

In polar regions, the decline in sea ice coverage is a stark indicator of climate change. This has profound implications for marine mammals like polar bears and seals, which depend on sea ice as a platform for hunting and resting.

5. Ocean Acidification

The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are not only raising temperatures but also leading to ocean acidification. This can have devastating effects on marine life, particularly species with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons.

6. Shifting Precipitation Patterns

Climate change also drives changes in precipitation patterns, impacting the salinity of ocean waters. These shifts can have cascading effects on marine ecosystems and the species that inhabit them.

Impacts on Marine Mammals

The effects of climate change are not limited to the physical environment; they also dramatically affect marine communities, including marine mammals. Here are some of the key ways in which climate change impacts these majestic creatures:

1. Altered Distribution and Behavior

Marine mammal species with restricted geographical distributions and habitat tolerances are particularly vulnerable. The changing conditions of their environment leave them with limited opportunities to adapt.

2. Disrupted Prey Availability

Marine mammals rely on stable environments where prey availability is relatively predictable. Climate change can disrupt these ecosystems, leading to food scarcity and challenges in feeding.

3. Climate-Related Shifts in Distribution

Some marine mammal populations, such as ice-associated seals and subarctic cetaceans, have already shown shifts in distribution due to climate change. These changes have significant implications for their conservation and management.

4. Predictive Challenges

Predicting climate-driven changes in marine mammal distribution, phenology, and abundance is a complex task. However, advancements in modeling tools and approaches are improving our ability to make informed predictions.

Assessing Climate Vulnerability

Understanding the vulnerability of marine mammals to climate change is crucial for their conservation. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) play a pivotal role in identifying species at risk. These assessments take into account factors such as exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

Trait-Based CVAs

One approach to CVAs involves trait-based assessments, which consider the biological or ecological traits of species that are linked to climate responses. While this method provides less resolution than quantitative approaches, it offers a rapid and adaptable way to assess vulnerability.

NOAA’s Role in Marine Mammal Protection

In the United States, the NOAA has a mandate to protect and recover marine mammal species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). To address climate-related threats to marine mammals, NOAA conducts trait-based CVAs for stocks in the WNA, GOMx, and Caribbean waters.

Conclusion

Climate change presents a profound challenge to marine mammals in the United States’ WNA, GOMx, and Caribbean waters. It is a complex issue that requires a multifaceted approach to address. As the world grapples with the consequences of a changing climate, it is imperative that we prioritize the conservation and protection of these incredible creatures. NOAA’s efforts, including trait-based CVAs and vulnerability rankings, provide valuable tools for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on marine mammals.

By comprehensively assessing vulnerability and taking proactive measures, we can work towards safeguarding the future of our marine mammal populations.

Source: Lettrich, M.D. et al. (2023). Vulnerability to climate change of U.S. marine mammal stocks in western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. PLoS ONE, 18(9), e0290643.