The Rising Challenge of Space Debris: ESA’s 2023 Space Environment Report Highlights the Need for Sustainable Practices

November 5, 2023 / activist360

LEO - Low Earth Orbit - Credit: NASA ODPO. — *LEO stands for low-Earth orbit and is the region of space within 2,000 km of the Earth’s surface. It is the most concentrated area for orbital debris. Credit: NASA ODPO.*

Navigating the Crowded Cosmos

As the Earth’s orbital space becomes increasingly populated with satellites crucial for scientific research, communication, and navigation, the burgeoning issue of space debris poses a threat to our sustainable future in space. The ESA’s 2023 Space Environment Report casts a sobering light on the crowded and hazardous orbits, underlining the urgency for effective space debris mitigation measures.

The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee’s guidelines set forth in 2002, aimed at reducing space debris, have become the foundation for space policy. However, with a record-breaking 2,409 new satellites launched in 2022, these guidelines are being outpaced by the sheer volume of space traffic. Many satellites remain in their operational orbits post-mission, creating potential debris clouds that could linger for years. With the rise of commercial satellite constellations in low-Earth orbits, the risk of collisions has grown exponentially, necessitating more frequent collision avoidance maneuvers.

Despite improvements in adopting debris mitigation measures, the ESA report suggests that current efforts are insufficient given the rate of satellite launches and existing debris. Over half of the 30,000 tracked debris pieces are cluttering low-Earth orbit, which doesn’t account for the countless smaller, untracked objects. The report warns that if we continue on this path, the dream of a sustainable space environment could slip through our fingers.

A Silver Lining

Nevertheless, there is a silver lining. A record number of satellites and fragments reentered Earth’s atmosphere in 2022, showing that adherence to guidelines — like vacating protected orbits within 25 years of end-of-life — is improving. Moreover, more than 80% of constellation satellites are now designed to deorbit within two years post-mission. Yet, most of these reentries are uncontrolled, posing risks of debris landing unpredictably on Earth.

ESA’s proactive steps include the novel “assisted reentry” technique, successfully demonstrated with the Aeolus satellite, and pioneering the ClearSpace-1 mission for active debris removal. These initiatives are part of ESA’s Zero Debris goal for 2030, aiming to leave no new space debris in critical orbits. By setting a precedent with the ClearSpace-1 mission, ESA aspires to catalyze a new commercial sector focused on debris removal and promote sustainable space operations industry-wide.

Time to Act

The 2023 report from ESA serves as a call to action for the global space community. The space around our planet is a finite, invaluable resource that demands our immediate attention and stewardship to prevent the dire predictions of Kessler Syndrome from becoming a reality.

…. fragments from future collisions will be generated faster than atmospheric drag will remove them.”
The Kessler Syndrome, as discussed by Donald J. Kessler, March 8, 2009

With continued focus and innovation in space sustainability, we can ensure that the benefits of space advancements are not overshadowed by the growing cloud of orbital debris. It’s time to act and safeguard our space environment for future generations.

Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Marine Mammals

October 8, 2023 / activist360

A mother sperm whale and her calf off the coast of Mauritius. The calf has remoras attached to its body. Credit: Gabriel Barathieu, January 26, 2013.

Our oceans are suffering the impact of climate change. From inshore environments to the deep ocean, marine ecosystems are undergoing significant transformations due to rising temperatures, increased carbon dioxide levels, and shifting environmental conditions. This research article by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) researchers published in PLOS ONE delves into the intricate relationship between climate change and marine mammals. The study focused on the United States’ western North Atlantic (WNA), Gulf of Mexico (GOMx), and Caribbean waters.

Drivers Impacting Marine Life

Global climate change has ushered in a multitude of alterations that stem from a handful of key drivers. Rising levels of heat and carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere are at the forefront. Here’s a closer look at the other major factors:

1. Increasing Ocean Temperatures

As the Earth’s temperature rises, so too do the temperatures of our oceans. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the western North Atlantic (WNA), where sea surface temperatures have been increasing rapidly. These rising temperatures have direct and indirect consequences for marine mammals that call these waters home.

2. Rising Sea Levels

One of the most visible effects of climate change is the rise in sea levels. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in regions like the southeastern United States, Gulf of Mexico (GOMx), and the Caribbean Sea. The accelerating sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal ecosystems and the marine life they support.

3. Decreasing Dissolved Oxygen

Climate change also contributes to declining levels of dissolved oxygen in our oceans. This is a particularly alarming trend for marine mammals, as many of them rely on oxygen-rich environments to thrive.

4. Declining Sea Ice Coverage

In polar regions, the decline in sea ice coverage is a stark indicator of climate change. This has profound implications for marine mammals like polar bears and seals, which depend on sea ice as a platform for hunting and resting.

5. Ocean Acidification

The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are not only raising temperatures but also leading to ocean acidification. This can have devastating effects on marine life, particularly species with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons.

6. Shifting Precipitation Patterns

Climate change also drives changes in precipitation patterns, impacting the salinity of ocean waters. These shifts can have cascading effects on marine ecosystems and the species that inhabit them.

Impacts on Marine Mammals

The effects of climate change are not limited to the physical environment; they also dramatically affect marine communities, including marine mammals. Here are some of the key ways in which climate change impacts these majestic creatures:

1. Altered Distribution and Behavior

Marine mammal species with restricted geographical distributions and habitat tolerances are particularly vulnerable. The changing conditions of their environment leave them with limited opportunities to adapt.

2. Disrupted Prey Availability

Marine mammals rely on stable environments where prey availability is relatively predictable. Climate change can disrupt these ecosystems, leading to food scarcity and challenges in feeding.

3. Climate-Related Shifts in Distribution

Some marine mammal populations, such as ice-associated seals and subarctic cetaceans, have already shown shifts in distribution due to climate change. These changes have significant implications for their conservation and management.

4. Predictive Challenges

Predicting climate-driven changes in marine mammal distribution, phenology, and abundance is a complex task. However, advancements in modeling tools and approaches are improving our ability to make informed predictions.

Assessing Climate Vulnerability

Understanding the vulnerability of marine mammals to climate change is crucial for their conservation. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) play a pivotal role in identifying species at risk. These assessments take into account factors such as exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

Trait-Based CVAs

One approach to CVAs involves trait-based assessments, which consider the biological or ecological traits of species that are linked to climate responses. While this method provides less resolution than quantitative approaches, it offers a rapid and adaptable way to assess vulnerability.

NOAA’s Role in Marine Mammal Protection

In the United States, the NOAA has a mandate to protect and recover marine mammal species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). To address climate-related threats to marine mammals, NOAA conducts trait-based CVAs for stocks in the WNA, GOMx, and Caribbean waters.

Conclusion

Climate change presents a profound challenge to marine mammals in the United States’ WNA, GOMx, and Caribbean waters. It is a complex issue that requires a multifaceted approach to address. As the world grapples with the consequences of a changing climate, it is imperative that we prioritize the conservation and protection of these incredible creatures. NOAA’s efforts, including trait-based CVAs and vulnerability rankings, provide valuable tools for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on marine mammals.

By comprehensively assessing vulnerability and taking proactive measures, we can work towards safeguarding the future of our marine mammal populations.

Source: Lettrich, M.D. et al. (2023). Vulnerability to climate change of U.S. marine mammal stocks in western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. PLoS ONE, 18(9), e0290643.

Predicting and Preventing Peatland Fires: Aalto University Develops Groundbreaking Neural Network Model ‘FireCNN’

August 27, 2023 / activist360

Military might. Army officers try to extinguish fires in peat land areas, outside Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan. Photo by Aulia Erlangga/CIFOR.

Aalto University researchers have developed a neural network model that can predict peatland fires in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The model performs consistently well, with ranges about the medium values of 95% for accuracy, and 78% for precision.

FireCNN, First-Ever Model Capable of Predicting Future Fire Locations

The researchers developed ‘FireCNN’, the first-ever model that can accurately predict the locations of future fires. FireCNN uses a type of machine learning algorithm called CNN (convolutional neural network) to analyze various factors that can predict fire occurrences (e.g., weather conditions, land use) before the start of fire season. The model allows researchers to test how different land management and restoration strategies, such as blocking canals, reforestation, and converting land to plantations, might impact the number of fires in the future without any bias. Researchers also simulated the effects of ongoing deforestation, converting swamp forests into degraded scrublands and plantations, to understand its potential impact on future fires.

The Focus of the Research

Indonesian peatlands face recurrent fires due to human-induced degradation, increasing recurrent fires since the late 1990s. These fires release CO2, equivalent to 30% of global fossil fuel emissions in 2020, and negatively impact the environment, economy, public health, agriculture, and social structure. In 2015, this resulted in a loss of over $16 billion to the Indonesian economy. Despite prohibitions, most ignitions are anthropogenic, started for agricultural expansion.

The investigation focused on the ex-Mega Rice Project (EMRP) area in central Kalimantan, Borneo, which has the highest density of peatland fires in Southeast Asia, recurring since 1997 due to logging, oil palm plantation development, and a failed rice cultivation scheme. This scheme inadvertently transformed swamp forests into degraded peatlands by digging 4000 km of drainage canals and clearing 1 million hectares of swamp forest. The area has distinct dry and wet seasons but a consistent mean monthly temperature of 28°C. Fire season hotspots peak around 11,000 but vary significantly yearly.

Study area map. Land cover map showing the whole study area (edge of map) circa 2015 as well as the ex-Mega Rice Project (EMRP) area (black outline). Inset map of Borneo provided by OpenStreetMap. Horton, A.J., Lehtinen, J. & Kummu, M. Targeted land management strategies could halve peatland fire occurrences in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Commun Earth Environ 3, 204 (2022).

Researchers found that converting degraded swamp shrubland to swamp forest or plantations could reduce fire occurrences by 40-55%. Blocking most canals could reduce fire occurrences by 70%. Effective strategies can reduce carbon emissions and enable sustainable ecosystem management.

Reducing peatland fires is essential for global carbon emission reduction, economic productivity, biodiversity safeguarding, and protecting vulnerable communities. However, efforts in Central Kalimantan have been unsuccessful due to corruption, poor governance, and lack of accountability. Previous studies lacked clear links between restoration efforts and future fire reductions.

Hope for the Development of an Early-Warning System

The findings demonstrate the potential impacts of future peatland restoration efforts, providing much-needed evidence for the potential success of these strategies, which may benefit similar projects currently underway. Postdoctoral researcher Alexander Horton noted that while the methodology could apply to other contexts, the model would need retraining on new data. Researchers hope to improve the model’s performance to serve as an early-warning system.

We tried to quantify how the different strategies would work. It’s more about informing policy-makers than providing direct solutions.
—Professor Matti Kummu, study team’s leader