Carbon Capture Isn’t a Free Pass: Why Cutting Emissions Still Matters

April 13, 2025 / activist360

A 4-panel infographic titled 'How Carbon Dioxide Mixes Underground Over Time' showing the stages of CO₂ injection and mixing in a saline aquifer: initial diffusion, formation of fingers, active mixing with plumes, and eventual saturation. Includes a color legend for caprock, injected CO₂, and brine.

How CO₂ Mixes Underground Over Time — This visual shows the four main stages of carbon dioxide mixing after underground injection: from initial diffusion to active mixing and eventual stabilization. While carbon capture helps, the slow pace of mixing shows why cutting emissions remains essential.

We’re capturing carbon to fight climate change—but does that mean we can keep burning fossil fuels? A new study says: not so fast.

We all want to believe in solutions. With headlines about new technologies to capture carbon dioxide (CO₂) and store it deep underground, it’s easy to feel hopeful. And we should—these tools are an important part of the climate puzzle.

But a recent scientific study reminds us of something important: carbon capture is not a substitute for cutting emissions. It can help, but it can’t do the job alone.

Here’s what the study found—and why it matters for anyone concerned about climate change.

The Bottom Line

Scientists recently ran some of the most advanced computer simulations to better understand what happens after CO₂ is stored underground. What they found is simple, but powerful:

CO₂ mixes underground more slowly than we thought.
Even when conditions are ideal, it can take decades to fully trap the carbon.
Thankfully, the study offers a new model to help us predict and manage the process more accurately.

What does this mean in plain terms?

Carbon capture can help us buy time—but we still need to slash emissions at the source.

How CO₂ Storage Works (Simple Explainer)

Let’s break it down.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a method of taking CO₂—usually from power plants or factories—and injecting it deep underground, into rock layers filled with salty water (called brine). Once underground, the CO₂ begins to mix with the brine. Over time, it becomes trapped and less likely to escape back into the air.

But here’s the key: this process doesn’t happen instantly.

At first, the CO₂ just sits there.
Then, it starts to mix with the brine slowly.
Eventually, if enough time passes, it becomes safely diluted and stored.

This is why we can’t rely on carbon capture alone. If we keep emitting at today’s pace, storage can’t keep up.

What the Study Found (Key Takeaways)

A team of international scientists ran 3D simulations to understand how CO₂ moves and mixes underground. Their findings give us a more realistic picture than older studies.

CO₂ Storage Happens in 3 Stages

Diffusion Phase: The CO₂ sits near the top, barely moving, and starts to slowly dissolve.
Mixing Phase: Fingers or “plumes” of CO₂-rich water begin to form and sink, helping the mixing process.
Shutdown Phase: As the space fills up, mixing slows, and it becomes harder for new CO₂ to enter the system.

The 13.5% Surprise

Older research assumed that CO₂ mixes 25% better in 3D (real-world) environments than in simpler 2D models. But this new study found the actual difference is only 13.5%. This matters because it corrects an overestimate in how fast and how much carbon we can safely store.

A Better Model

The study also introduced a simple, accurate formula to predict how CO₂ behaves underground over time. This helps engineers and policymakers design storage projects that are safer and more reliable.

In short: better science means better planning—and fewer excuses to delay real climate action.

Why It Matters for the Real World

We need trust in climate solutions. That means knowing how long it takes for stored CO₂ to become safe and stable underground.

Let’s take a real example: the Sleipner site in the North Sea, one of the world’s longest-running carbon storage projects.

After 20 years, only about 50% of the injected CO₂ has fully mixed.
To reach 90%, it could take more than 100 years.

That’s valuable progress—but it’s slow. We can’t lean on carbon capture alone, especially if emissions continue at today’s rates.

What This Means for Climate Activists

For climate activists, concerned citizens, and policymakers, this study offers a powerful reminder: Carbon capture is not a free pass to keep polluting.

Instead, it should be used alongside deep emissions cuts to help us reach climate goals faster and safer. Use this research to ask more questions:

How long will it take for the CO₂ to safely mix underground?
What’s being done to monitor leakage risk over time?
Are we also cutting emissions at the source—or just relying on storage?

The answers to these questions matter—because our planet’s future depends on both honest science and decisive action.

The Big Picture

Climate change is a big problem—and we need many tools to solve it. Carbon capture is one of those tools. But we shouldn’t treat it like a silver bullet.

“Carbon capture isn’t a free pass—it buys us time, but only if we use that time to slash emissions.”

This study helps us see that clearly. It’s not about losing hope—it’s about staying realistic, smart, and focused on solutions that truly work.

Final Thought

If we’re serious about protecting our planet, we must keep reducing the amount of CO₂ we put into the air—even as we work to store what’s already there. Science, like this study, helps point us in the right direction. It’s up to all of us—activists, voters, leaders, and everyday people—to act on that knowledge.

Source: De Paoli, M., Zonta, F., Enzenberger, L., Coliban, E., & Pirozzoli, S. (2025). Simulation and modeling of convective mixing of carbon dioxide in geological formations. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL114804. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114804

Predicting and Preventing Peatland Fires: Aalto University Develops Groundbreaking Neural Network Model ‘FireCNN’

August 27, 2023 / activist360

Military might. Army officers try to extinguish fires in peat land areas, outside Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan. Photo by Aulia Erlangga/CIFOR.

Aalto University researchers have developed a neural network model that can predict peatland fires in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The model performs consistently well, with ranges about the medium values of 95% for accuracy, and 78% for precision.

FireCNN, First-Ever Model Capable of Predicting Future Fire Locations

The researchers developed ‘FireCNN’, the first-ever model that can accurately predict the locations of future fires. FireCNN uses a type of machine learning algorithm called CNN (convolutional neural network) to analyze various factors that can predict fire occurrences (e.g., weather conditions, land use) before the start of fire season. The model allows researchers to test how different land management and restoration strategies, such as blocking canals, reforestation, and converting land to plantations, might impact the number of fires in the future without any bias. Researchers also simulated the effects of ongoing deforestation, converting swamp forests into degraded scrublands and plantations, to understand its potential impact on future fires.

The Focus of the Research

Indonesian peatlands face recurrent fires due to human-induced degradation, increasing recurrent fires since the late 1990s. These fires release CO2, equivalent to 30% of global fossil fuel emissions in 2020, and negatively impact the environment, economy, public health, agriculture, and social structure. In 2015, this resulted in a loss of over $16 billion to the Indonesian economy. Despite prohibitions, most ignitions are anthropogenic, started for agricultural expansion.

The investigation focused on the ex-Mega Rice Project (EMRP) area in central Kalimantan, Borneo, which has the highest density of peatland fires in Southeast Asia, recurring since 1997 due to logging, oil palm plantation development, and a failed rice cultivation scheme. This scheme inadvertently transformed swamp forests into degraded peatlands by digging 4000 km of drainage canals and clearing 1 million hectares of swamp forest. The area has distinct dry and wet seasons but a consistent mean monthly temperature of 28°C. Fire season hotspots peak around 11,000 but vary significantly yearly.

Study area map. Land cover map showing the whole study area (edge of map) circa 2015 as well as the ex-Mega Rice Project (EMRP) area (black outline). Inset map of Borneo provided by OpenStreetMap. Horton, A.J., Lehtinen, J. & Kummu, M. Targeted land management strategies could halve peatland fire occurrences in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Commun Earth Environ 3, 204 (2022).

Researchers found that converting degraded swamp shrubland to swamp forest or plantations could reduce fire occurrences by 40-55%. Blocking most canals could reduce fire occurrences by 70%. Effective strategies can reduce carbon emissions and enable sustainable ecosystem management.

Reducing peatland fires is essential for global carbon emission reduction, economic productivity, biodiversity safeguarding, and protecting vulnerable communities. However, efforts in Central Kalimantan have been unsuccessful due to corruption, poor governance, and lack of accountability. Previous studies lacked clear links between restoration efforts and future fire reductions.

Hope for the Development of an Early-Warning System

The findings demonstrate the potential impacts of future peatland restoration efforts, providing much-needed evidence for the potential success of these strategies, which may benefit similar projects currently underway. Postdoctoral researcher Alexander Horton noted that while the methodology could apply to other contexts, the model would need retraining on new data. Researchers hope to improve the model’s performance to serve as an early-warning system.

We tried to quantify how the different strategies would work. It’s more about informing policy-makers than providing direct solutions.
—Professor Matti Kummu, study team’s leader

University of Central Florida Researchers Unveil Breakthrough in Greenhouse Gas Recycling

August 13, 2023 / activist360

UCF researchers Richard Blair (left) and Laurene Tetard (right) are long-time collaborators and have developed new methods to produce energy and materials from the harmful greenhouse gas, methane.

In a significant step toward sustainable energy, researchers from the University of Central Florida (UCF) have innovated methods to convert the potent greenhouse gas, methane, into green energy and advanced materials.

Methane, with an impact 28 times greater than carbon dioxide over a century, is a notable contributor to global warming. Its emissions predominantly arise from energy sectors, agriculture, and landfills. Now, UCF’s groundbreaking methods might turn this environmental challenge into an opportunity, as they utilize methane for producing green energy and crafting high-performance materials for smart devices, solar cells, and biotech applications.

Behind these inventions are UFC researchers, nanotechnologist Laurene Tetard and catalysis specialist Richard Blair. Tetard is an associate professor and associate chair of UCF’s Department of Physics. He is also a researcher with the NanoScience Technology Center. Blair is a research professor at UCF’s Florida Space Institute. The two have been collaborating on research projects for the past decade.

Their pioneering technique produces hydrogen from methane without carbon gas emission. Utilizing visible light sources, like lasers or solar energy, and defect-engineered boron-rich photocatalysts, the process emphasizes the advanced potential of nanoscale materials.

Blair highlights the dual benefits: You get green hydrogen, and you remove — not really sequester — methane. You’re processing methane into just hydrogen and pure carbon that can be used for things like batteries.” Traditional methods, Blair notes, produce CO2 along with hydrogen. Their innovation not only tackles methane emissions but also transforms it into valuable hydrogen and carbon. Market applications include possible large-scale hydrogen production in solar farms and methane capture and conversion.

“Our process takes a greenhouse gas, methane and converts it into something that’s not a greenhouse gas and two things that are valuable products, hydrogen and carbon. And we’ve removed methane from the cycle.”
—Richard Blair, research professor at UCF’s Florida Space Institute

Additionally, this technology from Tetard and Blair offers the ability to manufacture carbon structures at nano and micro scales using light and a defect-engineered photocatalyst. Envisioning it as a “carbon 3D printer,” Blair notes the dream is to make high-performance carbon materials from methane.

“It took a while to get some really exciting results,” Tetard says. “In the beginning, a lot of the characterization that we tried to do was not working the way we wanted. We sat down to discuss puzzling observations so many times.”

Countries lacking significant power sources could potentially benefit, requiring only methane and sunlight to leverage the innovation. As Blair summarizes, the process takes a greenhouse menace and turns it into precious, non-polluting commodities.